Commodity Compass - 10/3 - Diverging Supply Concerns in Copper and Oil

Markets shrugged off the US government shut down this week. Job and private sector employment data showed a decaying labor market, but investors saw it as more fuel for cheaper capital. As the major boards found new all-time highs this week, precious metals extended their rally as well—gold briefly surged to a new record as concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and sticky inflation elevated safe-haven flows. In base metals, copper caught a bid midweek as lingering supply disruptions—especially from the mudslide and forced outages at Grasberg—reignited deficit fears. All told, the week’s story hinged on diverging trends: energy under pressure from surplus expectations, metals riding supply constraints and safe-haven demand, and commodity subsectors reacting idiosyncratically to evolving fundamentals.