Craig Hemke – If Current Macroeconomic Tailwinds Persist, Then There Will Be A Cattle-Call Stampeding Into Gold, Silver, And PM Equities
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins me for a wide-ranging discussion on the macroeconomic market movers over the last few weeks and looking ahead to a potential cattle call into gold, silver, and the precious metals equities. We also dig into the whipsaw copper pricing as a result of the Trump tariff policies and where things may settle out.
Topics we discuss:
Craig walks us through the macroeconomics forces at work between US fiscal policy and Fed monetary policy, and how interest rates trends, and the potential for yield curve controls will likely push the US dollar lower, and the precious metals sector higher.
We discuss how the jobs report numbers, and downward revisions of the prior 2 months jobs metrics, highlight the potential policy error that Jerome Powell and the Fed have made in delaying cutting the Fed funds rate by pointing to strong jobs figures the last few months as proof of a robust economy.
Craig feels the pathway forward from the Trump administration is to either remove Powell early, or replace him as soon as possible next year with a dovish Fed chairman that will move to quickly cut interest rates and work in concert with the US Treasury Department. The plan will be to lower rates to reduce down the burden of debt repayment, but then also to keep spending with fiscal policy to try and grow (and by default inflate) our way out of the current situation.
The US dollar’s recent rally may ending up having been a head-fake, which caught some market participants off-sides, as the greenback has already started rolling over lower once again. This dollar weakness and worse-than-anticipated jobs data has boosted the precious metals sector at the end of last week and we are seeing follow through strength in gold and silver to kick off this week.
We also discussed how copper pricing went on a wild ride building up to the proposed 50% copper tariffs, but then reversed down sharply when it turned out the tariffs were only on finished copper products, but not copper concentrates or refined copper itself. Craig outlined how silver, platinum, and palladium got caught up in that move higher in copper, and did reverse down initially with copper’s crash lower, but have since stabilized and started trekking back higher again with gold.
We wrap up discussing the moves we’ve seen lately in PM producers on the back of strong Q2 numbers, noting Agnico Eagle’s recent barn-burner quarter, and that we are already one third of the way through Q3 with even higher average metals prices. If people get a sense that these macro forces and higher underlying gold and silver prices are going to stay elevated, then there could be a cattle-call and stampede into the precious metals equities.
