Dave Erfle - Are PM Stocks Underperforming This Breakout In Price?
In this year-end daily editorial, Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Miner Junky, recaps a historic week that saw gold hit an intraday all-time high of $4,400 and silver surge to $67 per ounce.
Despite these parabolic moves in the metals, the junior mining equities have shown a lackluster response, leading to a "broken reaction" in the sector. Dave analyzes why investors are booking profits despite massive expansion in producer margins and explains why he believes the current physical silver squeeze, driven by five years of structural deficits, is far more resilient than the paper-driven speculation seen in 2011.
2025 Precious Metals Recap
- Record-Breaking Prices: Gold ends the year testing $4,400, while silver hit $67 this week—a 130% year-to-date gain for the white metal.
- The Stock Disconnect: While majors remain near highs, juniors are lagging. Dave notes they are technically overbought but remain "under-owned" and undervalued relative to their Net Asset Value (NAV) and NPV economics.
- Physical Squeeze vs. Margin Hikes: Unlike the speculative peak in 2011, this rally is driven by a physical silver deficit. Recent 50% margin hikes failed to cool the price, signaling a fundamental shift in market mechanics.
- Safe Haven Shift: Gold has officially surpassed Treasuries as the preferred safe-haven asset for central banks and institutional portfolios (shifting the traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 gold-heavy allocation).
- 2026 Outlook: As miners prepare to report record-breaking Q4 financials in February, Dave expects a continued rerate, specifically for high-risk juniors in jurisdictions like Bolivia where political shifts are unlocking deep value.
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