Justin Huhn – Part 2 Of Nuclear Fuels Demand And Supply Factors – Pro Tips On Investing In Uranium Stocks
Justin Huhn, Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider, joins me for yet another very comprehensive macro update on the supply and demand fundamentals for uranium and the nuclear fuel sector, how the longer-term contracting cycle is setting up, and then what he is watching and how he is positioning in the uranium equities in this most recent corrective move lower in the sector. This is a longer-format follow up to our prior conversation in April, because a lot of nuclear and uranium sector news has been announced, and Justin guides us through with pro tips on how to approach investing in this sector. (in fact, this may be the longest daily editorial we’ve ever put out on the KE Report, but it is crammed pack with information, gets into a rapid-fire segment midway through, and then ends with a bang)
We start off reviewing the flurry of news out of Kazakhstan from the largest uranium swing producer in the sector Kazatomprom. In addition to a shortfall of sulphuric acid, increased taxes on production, expected to crimp supply; and yet a surprise announcement of an increase in overall production (while showing a big decrease in their JV production for Canada with Cameco), Justin walks us through all the nuances. We also discuss the continued unstable politics in Niger making future supply still in question, along with the Australian ban on the Jabiluka uranium deposit; blocking Energy Resources of Australia and Rio Tinto (RIO) from bringing that supply online. We also discuss expectations for production output from both Cameco (CCO.V) (CCJ), and the French producer Orano, which are not expected to grow output that much over the next year or two. All of this points to a much more constrained output from global uranium producers, even in face of growing demand.
One bright spot for production is the ramping up of production from US producers like enCore Energy (EU.V) (EU), Energy Fuels (EFR.TO) (UUUU), Ur-Energy (URE.TO) (URG), Peninsula Energy (PEN.AX) (PENMF), and Uranium Energy Corp (UEC). Justin provides his thoughts on investing in US-based uranium companies, what he feels their reasonable collective output levels are, and also he also discusses the pros and cons of exploration companies and jurisdiction risk in certain states.
We then delve into all the increasing uranium demand from more countries committing to expand nuclear power buildouts, along with life-extensions on existing reactors, and the role that small modular reactors could have in powering AI data centers and manufacturing or in phasing out coal plants as another demand driver. Justin touches upon the ongoing bottlenecks with regards to sourcing enriched uranium fuel and enrichment & processing due to the recent sanctions placed on Russian supplies and the waivers that utility companies are waiting for more clarity on. He also breaks down the bifurcation between the expectations and sentiment from the utility companies and nuclear fuel buyers, compared to the realities that the uranium mining companies have been forecasting; with regards to realistic future mine supply and incentive prices.
Next we get into the key larger uranium development projects in the works and just how many years from actual production all of them are; with no new projects expected to come online until 2027 at the earliest, but likely a lot longer. This review includes the Arrow Project from NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE) (NYSE: NXE), the PLS (Patterson Lake) Project held by Fission Uranium (TSX: FCU) (OTCQX: FCUUF), that is currently being acquired by Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) (OTCQX: PALAF), and the Phoenix Project held by Denison Mines (TSX: DML) (NYSE: DNN). While these are all very robust projects, they will not be adding to global production for at least several years, which raises the question of where all the new uranium supply will come from in the interim?
We wrap up by getting Justin’s thoughts on the uranium exploration stocks operating in the Athabasca Basin and Thelon Basin of Canada, and where the biggest opportunities and concerns are from his vantage point. With so many uranium discoveries having already been made, the question is posed if any new discoveries will ultimately matter to the medium-term supply fundamentals? Justin points to the ultra-high-grade uranium discovered over the last few years at the Hurricane Deposit, held by IsoEnergy Ltd (TSX: ISO) (OTCQX: ISENF), and the potential of using the Sabre technology from Orano to extract it, and additionally Denison’s Phoenix Project. If more deposits like that can be found, then it will be impactful, and could bring more projects up the development batting order.
