KER Market QuickTake: Is This a Top or a Buying Opportunity in Precious Metals?
In this KER Market Quick Take, Cory Fleck and Shad Marquitz break down the broad correction across precious and base metals and outline where they see opportunity as year-end approaches.
- Metals correction: Gold and silver are only ~10–15% off highs, but many miners - especially juniors - are down 20–40% as momentum traders and generalists step aside.
- Majors vs. juniors: Large-cap producers (e.g., Newmont, Fresnillo) are holding up relatively well. Junior producers and developers have sold off sharply, creating what Shad sees as the best value.
- Q4 margins & Q1 setup: With gold near $4,000 and silver around $50, producers are enjoying record margins. Shad sees a strong setup for a Q1 seasonal bounce as earnings land.
- M&A & valuations: Recent takeovers (like Probe) came at low valuations. Many juniors still don’t reflect $3,500–$4,000 gold or $40–$50 silver in their NPVs.
- Financing overhang: Cory highlights heavy financing activity and incoming 4-month holds as key near-term headwinds, reinforcing the need for selectivity.
- Other metals:
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Copper: Stable near $5/lb; producers outperforming the metal.
- Lithium: ETF rebound—nearly doubled since April lows.
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Positioning outlook: Shad is accumulating select juniors into weakness; Cory prefers patience until clearer uptrends form, though he sees potential catalysts from policy shifts or a major new discovery.
Stocks & ETFs Mentioned: GDX, GLD, SLV, PSLV, COPX, LIT, Newmont ($NEM), Fresnillo ($FRES), Silver X, Impact Silver, Guanajuato Silver, Avino Silver & Gold.
Let us know your thoughts on the KER Market QuickTakes - Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com
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