#737 - "Corn Hits Major Resistance, Soybean Rallies to Sell?" - Weekly Market Outlook: Dec 29 - Jan 2
As 2025 comes to a close and the calendar turns to 2026, Chris sits down with Jim McCormick of agmarket.net to walk through what grain producers should be watching right now. With year-end trading volume thin, basis behavior can get aggressive as elevators work through inventory and producers make financial adjustments, creating both opportunity and risk.
Jim explains why soybean rallies may continue to attract selling pressure, especially with China’s recent purchases coming in lighter than early expectations and Brazil shaping up for a strong crop. He outlines 10.80 as the upper end of the current trading range and discusses why unpriced bushels may need a plan if that level is tested. On corn, the conversation shifts to technicals after March futures broke a long-term downtrend, while still facing heavy resistance in the $4.50 to $4.60 zone given large projected ending stocks.
The discussion also looks ahead to the upcoming USDA report, where yield and acreage adjustments could create volatility, and why delayed fund position data remains an important missing piece. South American weather, especially dryness concerns in southern Argentina, is another key factor to monitor. Chris and Jim also dig into cash flow pressure building toward spring, slower soybean selling compared to past years, and how larger lines of credit could force bushels to move.
The conversation wraps with thoughts on 2026 marketing strategy, including why panic selling a crop more than a year out may not make sense, what price levels could justify forward selling corn, limited interest in 2026 soybeans so far, and why energy markets suggest patience when locking in fuel. Jim also shares lessons from 2025 that producers should carry forward, including knowing break-evens precisely, staying flexible, and being ready for faster market moves than in the past.
