Christopher Aaron - Are We In The Final Phase Of The Gold Bull Market That Started 9 Years Ago?
Christopher Aaron, Founder of iGold Advisor and Senior Editor at the Gold Eagle website, joins us to review his medium to longer-term technical outlook on gold, silver, the precious metals stocks, and the Dow:Gold ratio. We review the whether the conditions present today might potentially indicate that we could be in the final phase of the precious metals bull market that started 9 years ago when gold bottomed at $1045 in December of 2015.
We start off focused on the gold technical charts, where Christopher's upside extrapolation target coming out of the 2022 false breakdown to $1620 up to $2,680 has now been eclipsed, and he points out that there is no chart-based evidence for higher gold prices, even though gold is now in the mid $2700s. However, that doesn't mean that it can't keep running higher, but it's important to now consider gold in relation to other adjacent markets like silver, gold equities, the dollar, and US equities.
For example, with silver, Christopher has a current upside target of $38.60, after adding on the $6.10 extrapolation move to the $32.50 resistance and breakout, so if silver is going to keep running higher, then gold should be able to continue moving a little bit higher as it consolidates the big moves it has already had. We also discuss GDX and that the recent move up to $44.22 got close to the 2020 peak of $45.78, but that thus far the gold equities have underwhelmed investor expectations. However if silver is going to keep moving, then it is possible we could see a nice catchup trade in the gold and silver stocks.
The real test for the longevity of the precious metals bull market comes down to how they are going to perform versus US equities, once the large 40+ year consolidation triangle pattern on the DOW:Gold ratio finally resolves in favor of general stock markets or gold. If that triangle resolves in favor of gold then some of the larger targets of $5,000-$10,000 gold are not off the table, but if the triangle consolidation breaks in favor of US equities, then we are likely seeing the final wave of this precious metals bull market, where gold will then correct sideways to down for a decade or more. Christopher urges investors to align with what the market data shows us, to strongly consider this point in history and a data-based approach, and not to listen or fall for the sector story tellers.
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