Episode 3 - Met Cuts, Thermal Signals & Royalty Shock
A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.
Thermal Coal
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Europe: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.
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Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.
Met Coal
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Pricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.
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Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.
Policy & Cost Curves
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Inflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.
U.S. Power & Gas
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Data-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.
Equities & Positioning
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Watch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.
Listener Q&A Highlights
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Coronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.
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China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.
Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP
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Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
