Episode 4 - Rare Earths Jolt Coal: What’s Really Driving Coal Stocks?
Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network
A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.
Thermal Coal
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Europe: API2 drifting in the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady near ~$100–110 during shoulder season.
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Asia: China/India imports firm; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal ~$40 → ~$43; China-destined 5,500 kcal ~$65 → ~$70.
Met Coal
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Pricing: Recovered off ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.
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Supply: BHP to close the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of additional Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.
Policy & Cost Curves
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New floors: Inflation + royalties push global cost curves up—levels that were prior peaks now look like today’s support.
U.S. Power & Gas
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Demand tailwinds: Data-center load and new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and improved coal dispatch versus recent summers.
Equities & Positioning
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Playbook: Watch M&A overhangs and prioritize buyback/clean-balance-sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.
Listener Q&A Highlights
- China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand toward India.
Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP
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Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
